My Oscar Predictions
â€œBlack Pantherâ€ Marvel enters the Oscars race with a clever ‘woke’ film
â€œBlacKkKlansmanâ€ Spike Lee back on form and funny with it.
â€œBohemian Rhapsodyâ€ Cheesy crowd-pleaser even has a ‘Beethoven composing’ moment and shouldn’t be here.
â€œThe Favouriteâ€ History, fact or deranged fan-fiction? It took me a minute to figure out the final shot.
â€œGreen Bookâ€ Souped-up ‘faction’, worth it to see Mortensen eat an entire pizza in one go by folding it in half.
â€œRomaâ€ – Both touchingly intimate AND a sweeping epic – how did he do that? It has to win.
â€œA Star Is Bornâ€ – Saw the Garland version, it was better.
â€œViceâ€ – A flashy, smart lesson in politics as a destructive force, in case you thought now was bad.
Christian Bale, â€œViceâ€ Too much latex to win
Bradley Cooper, â€œA Star Is Bornâ€ Too much ego ti win
Willem Dafoe, â€œAt Eternityâ€™s Gateâ€ Too much Vincent to win
Rami Malek, â€œBohemian Rhapsodyâ€ May win because impersonation
Viggo Mortensen, â€œGreen Bookâ€Â Should win because hilarious
Yalitza Aparicio, â€œRomaâ€ Quiet, unshowy brilliance
Glenn Close, â€œThe Wifeâ€ Powerful, moving, predictable
Olivia Colman, â€œThe Favouriteâ€ Mad as an old man’s trousers, winner writtenall over it
Lady Gaga, â€œA Star Is Bornâ€ Meh
Melissa McCarthy, â€œCan You Ever Forgive Me?â€ Great Grumpy Old Dyke performance
Mahershala Ali, â€œGreen Bookâ€ The Oscars’ most reined-in performance
Adam Driver, â€œBlacKkKlansmanâ€ A safe pair of hands
Sam Elliott, â€œA Star Is Bornâ€ Which one was he?
Richard E. Grant, â€œCan You Ever Forgive Me?â€ Playing a camp old actor again, but owning it
Sam Rockwell, â€œViceâ€ Which one was he?
Amy Adams, â€œViceâ€ Good but Wife Role
Marina de Tavira, â€œRomaâ€ Which one was she?
Regina King, â€œIf Beale Street Could Talkâ€ Good I think, can’t quite remember
Emma Stone, â€œThe Favouriteâ€ Funny and always looks so surprised
Rachel Weisz, â€œThe Favouriteâ€ Great frocks, a bit earnest
Of the others, Pawel Pawlikowski deserves best director for â€œCold Warâ€ butÂ Alfonso CuarÃ³n should also win for â€œRomaâ€, for returning film to grandeur. Among the animated features there can be only one winner, â€œSpider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,â€ for allowing form to dictate narrative – a genuinely startling game-changer.
In terms of script my personal favourites were the same as the nominations,Â â€œThe Favourite,â€ by Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara,Â â€œFirst Reformed,â€ by Paul Schrader,Â â€œGreen Book,â€ Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly,Â â€œRoma,â€ by Alfonso CuarÃ³n andÂ â€œVice,â€ Adam McKay.
Cinematography has to go toÂ â€œRoma,â€ but now there’s a problem withÂ Best Foreign Language Film because “Roma” is nominated here as well. I feel sure that Production Design will go toÂ â€œBlack Pantherâ€ even though it comes from designs in a 1960s comic book. Best Original Score is a joke this year, with none of the truly superb scores like Max Richter’s ‘Mary, Queen of Scots’ or Justin Hurwitz’s surprising mix for “First Man” featuring.Â Costume Design must beÂ â€œThe Favouriteâ€ from the ever-amazing Sandy Powell.
The no-shows are as usual a shock. No ‘Stan & Ollie’, no ‘Three Identical Strangers’, no ‘First Man’, no ‘Widows’, no ‘Burning’, virtually no ‘Mary Poppins Returns’. Hey, it’s the Oscars – they always say more about the times than the films.